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The calculation and estimation of the race time they are an important goal for all athletes participating in a competition.
The estimate on a distance similar to that usually run can be estimated simply by applying to the times made in training some corrections related to the race course, such as that relating to the slope of the sections of the course, to the "density of participants" expected at the time of departure. it can be due to slowdown or factors such as temperature and bottom conditions.
On the other hand, when we want to estimate our performance over distances other than those we usually run, it can be very useful to resort to Riegel's formula, developed in the late 1970s.
The formula is as follows: T2 = T1 * (D2 / D1) ^ 1.06
For your convenience we have created a calculator that allows you to perform the calculations by simply entering the individual factors relating to:
- Time you have timed over a distance you have run (T1)
- Distance relative to the time you have completed (D1)
- Distance for which you want to estimate your race time (D2)
Race time calculation - Race Predictor
Comparison with Garmin Race Predictor
In my training I am fortunate to be able to use a watch Garmin Fenix 5 equipped with a special function for estimating race times called "Race Predictor“.
Based on what is written on the official Garmin website the Race Predictor uses VO2 max calculated by the watch based on personal performance to estimate race times.
I tried to compare the estimated times from the Garmin Race Predictor with those provided by the Riegel formula, used for our calculator that I made available above and I was able to verify quite similar estimates.
For example, by entering the time of 21:43 in our calculator I get a forecast for a 10,000 meter race of 45:17 while the Garmin Race Predictor estimates a time of 45:03.
For a half marathon the time estimated by our calculator is instead of 1:39:54 compared to the time estimated by the Race Predictor which is instead of 1:39:48.
As far as my personal experience is concerned, both the times estimated by the Riegel formula we used in our calculator and the formulas used by the Garmin Race Predictor offer estimates, starting from the 5 km times, which in my opinion are too optimistic.
However, the experience of my other friends is not always the same: some agree with me but others believe both predictions are more or less in line with reality.
Certainly both estimates are a very useful reference for me to estimate my potential over various race distances and to relate them to each other. I hope they are for you too! :-)
If you want to report your impressions or your opinion, you can write to us at [email protected].
Another related article of ours that may interest you is Running speed and running pace calculation where you will find a calculator to determine online the pace of your run based on speed, the time to devote to a workout based on your pace and distance you intend to travel and other interesting estimates.